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Wednesday, August 23, 2006 

Pressure What Pressure?

Pressure? What Pressure?
If Ian Paisley and the DUP decide to call Tony and Bertie’s bluff and deliver the final deathblow to an Assembly, that the vast majority of their supporters have never wanted anyway, who exactly will be the losers?

If you listen to the various Republican hacks, then it’s obviously Unionism; no Executive by November then it's back to an increasingly “Green” Direct Rule, with the Dublin government also getting a carte-blanche to stick its nose into all kinds of Northern Ireland’s business. Coupled with the sectarian carve-up of the super- councils imminent then, we’re counting down to United Ireland (just checked Pakman’s clock, 3552 days to go!).

That’s the theory anyway.

Here’s a few facts.
Paisley and the DUP are merely reflecting the antipathy (or just plain apathy) amongst most Unionists towards any Executive which contains members of Sinn Fein. The majority of Unionists did vote for the Belfast Agreement in the belief that, with the goodwill of all parties, a new chapter in Northern Ireland was possible. Sinn Fein in the subsequent period have betrayed their trust and Unionists are not ready yet to give them a second chance.

Am I bothered that Northern Ireland’s economy, health service etc is being run by English, Scottish and Welshmen? Not particularly. Can Sinn Fein (or the DUP for that matter) be trusted to run the Province in a fair manner for the benefit of all its citizens?
No, not whilst they are the two parties who rely most on the sectarian divisions within our society to win votes and power.

Ah, but what about that implied “Joint Authority” threat, if there’s no Executive by November? Blair and Hain, like the rest of their Nu-Labour cronies, are moral bankrupts. What they promise, say and imply and what they actually do are, more often than not, two completely different things. First up,as Tango-Man Hain himself later admitted, formal legal Joint Authority cannot be brought in without an act of parliament.The British and more importantly,the Irish government know that the passing of such an act would be basically telling the Unionists that their days were numbered. What would be the likely reaction to such an announcement? Would Blair, in the last few months of his Premiership or Bertie living just a few miles south of the border be prepared to risk it? Whatever you may think of the man and his politics, Paisley knows exactly what the Unionist grassroot thinks and with that information in mind, he knows that the answer to the last question is “no”

I’m sure on an informal level that the Irish and British governments are working very closely on such matters as security and the economy. Also as the situation within Northern Ireland normalizes, then there will be a further natural “greening” of society ( as much from Protestants becoming more comfortable with *Irishness* as any of Sinn Fein’s forced “Gaelisation” Policies). Whether there is ever another Executive or not, both of these processes will continue.The DUP leadership is canny enough to know this, but obviously now as the leading Unionist party will not be so keen to advertise these facts as it would have been in the past.

So what exactly have the DUP got to lose if they don't comply by that lastest ever, no really this time, November deadline??

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